Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Yesterday, the leadership spill of the ALP occurred. The result was a very comfortable win by Julia Gillard, 71 votes to Kevin Rudd's 31 votes.

This vote highlights the differences in the sentiments in the Labor caucus, the majority of whom prefer Julia Gillard over Kevin Rudd, and the general Australian public, the majority of whom prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard. It therefore retains this rather strange situation where neither of the major parties is led by a member of parliament in either party who is most preferred (Kevin Rudd from the ALP or Malcolm Turnbull for Liberal), and where the disapproval rate for both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader is above their approval rates.

It seems like Kevin Rudd's style of leadership internally and method of working when he was Prime Minister not liked by a lot of the Labor MPs. It's been a while since then though, and it is an open question on whether or not he would make the same mistakes if he was the PM again.

From here on in, Julia Gillard's victory was so strong in this vote that there does not seem like a high chance of a re-challenge. However, if the public sentiment does not improve leading up to the next election, then I think the ALP might think about it again. Alternatively, it might take them losing the next election before they get shocked into taking action. We'll see.

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